Umkhonto we Sizwe: “The Spear of the Nation.” A term that many South Africans and foreign spectators thought would be relegated to the annals of history after 1993 when the African National Congress (ANC) disbanded the militant wing of their struggle against apartheid in South Africa. However, this organization has been resurrected from its dormancy by South Africa’s former president, Jacob Zuma, as he once again faces upcoming elections. But why does this matter? How will the results affect the trajectory of South Africa? Why should you care about the elections in South Africa? This article will serve as a guide through the key contenders in the race, the reason why Umkhonto we Sizwe’s resurgence might spell trouble for the ANC, and why the unlikely accession of the Democratic Alliance could result in a policy shift for South Africa’s foreign and economic policy.

The Contenders:

The 2024 South African elections will be a rematch between the incumbent African National Congress and its opposition, the Democratic Alliance. Although the ANC has not faced fierce competition since black South Africans were given the right to vote in 1994, when Mandela and the ANC were elected by a landslide, this election could prove different. The fragmentation of the left-leaning vote, which tends to support the ANC, complicates the regular duo play between the two major parties and could deny any party a clear majority in the national assembly.

On the left, three parties are vying for the support of a base composed mostly of black South Africans, the ANC being the largest and most established party of the three. Having led the fight against apartheid, the ANC has achieved significant support from black South Africans, who comprise about 81% of the population, and largely support their center-left policies and anti-apartheid legacy. However, high unemployment (which has reached an estimate of 32%), rising crime, and allegations of corruption in the party have led to a deterioration of the ANC’s image and to the formation of splinter parties that threaten the election outcomes this year.

The key threat to the ANC’s prospects is Umkhonto we Sizwe. Umkhonto we Sizwe, or the MK, was founded by Jacob Zuma due to his growing discontent with the performance of his successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, in leading the ANC and the country as a whole. However, personal vendettas also likely played a role in Zuma’s creation of the MK. Ramaphosa pushed Zuma out of office as rising corruption charges against Zuma plagued the latter part of his presidency. Regardless of Zuma’s motivation for founding the MK, the party could significantly damage the ANC’s shot at gaining a majority in Zuma’s home state of KwaZulu-Natal, where ANC holds 24 of 41 seats in the National Assembly. Proportional representation could decrease this seat count as Zuma’s popularity is likely to bolster the votes for his MK party. Furthermore, the MK may also siphon votes from the ANC in other regions and cause further losses to the party’s vote share and seat count.

Meanwhile, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by Julius Malema, aim to tackle inequality by redistributing lands to poorer sectors of society and rectifying the remnants of apartheid. Although Malema and his EFF have been on the political scene since 2014, they have only marginally affected the ANC as they maxed out their vote share at about 10%. However, the combined votes for the EFF and the MK could significantly harm the ANCs vote totals and subsequently their parliamentary representation. Current polling suggests that the MK and EFF will take a combined 22% of the electorate and relegate the ANC to the low 40s or high 30s in terms of popular vote percentage.

To further the threat to the ANC’s power this election cycle, the Democratic Alliance and all the other minor opposition parties have coalesced around the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) to oppose the ANC government. This coalition of the center Democratic Alliance, the main opposition in South Africa, as well as other center-right to right-wing parties is unlikely to win a majority of the votes or seats. Although this coalition is unlikely to win a plurality of seats and votes, possible backing by the MK in a supply and confidence agreement could put the MPC over the top.

Why does this matter? 

If the MPC topples the ANC and takes over with the Democratic Alliance leading the government, this would drastically change both the economic policies and the foreign relations of South Africa.

On the economic front, the Democratic Alliance (DA) has outlined its intention to liberalize the economy by decreasing state intervention. Namely, the DA has criticized the ANC for being too concerned with racial policies like the Black Economic Empowerment program, which was supposed to contribute funds to companies that brought growth to black companies. Furthermore, the DA’s leader, John Steenhuisen, has claimed that the ANC is dominated by the interests of labor unions, reducing its ability to tackle unemployment. Steenhuisen argues unemployment can be tackled by decreasing regulations on business in South Africa, thus making it easier to invest in the country. This economic shift would mark the most drastic change in policy since democratization in 1994, with the focus shifting away from rectifying the inequality that apartheid has left in South African society through racial policies and toward allowing the market to try and solve this through broader prosperity.

A DA victory  could also radically shift the foreign policy objectives of South Africa. With the DA’s avowedly anti-Russian position, especially compared to the ANC, the multilateral organization BRICS might cease to exist. On top of this negative perception of Russia, the Democratic Alliance has also been very critical of the alleged influence of the Chinese government to aid the ANC, and we are yet to see how a DA lead government would interact with two nations that have been key partners of South Africa since democratization.

Caveat 

We can’t know for sure if the MK and EFF’s polling strength will translate into votes and deny the ANC a majority of seats. Furthermore, the EFF is unlikely to back a DA lead government due to the DA’s demonization of the EFF throughout the election campaign. On top of this, it remains to be seen if Zuma’s animosity toward Ramaphosa will be enough for him to back a DA-led government or if his MK party can pick up enough seats to make the difference and push the MPC over the top.