The Sunset of Pax Americana

For eight decades, the United States stood as the architect of a global order defined by liberal democracy, open markets, and institutional alliances. Born from the ashes of World War II and cemented by the Marshall Plan’s economic diplomacy, American hegemony was not merely a product of military might but of soft power—the cultivation of trust, stability, and shared prosperity. Today, that era is collapsing. The Trump administration’s “America First” doctrine, a cocktail of transactional nationalism and diplomatic brinkmanship, has led to the abrupt unravelling of the American-led international order that has led the world since 1945.  From the gutting of foreign aid to the alienation of allies and the emboldenment of adversarial powers, the United States is no longer the sun around which the world orbits. It is a fading star that is being eclipsed by its own retreat.

The Dismantling of Soft Power

Soft power—the ability to shape global outcomes through attraction rather than coercion—has long been America’s quiet superpower. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), established in 1961 to counter Soviet influence during the Cold War, became a cornerstone of this strategy, channeling billions into health, education, and infrastructure projects to foster goodwill and stability. By February 2025, the Trump administration had suspended most foreign aid, dismantled USAID’s workforce, and erased its digital presence—a move former officials likened to “decapitation”. The repercussions are stark: regions like Africa and Asia, where USAID once countered malnutrition and disease, now witness Russian mercenaries and Chinese diplomats filling the void.

Michael Schiffer, a former USAID official, summarized the fallout: “America’s alliances will be jeopardized, U.S. partners will face risks, and America’s foes will find joy in this situation.” The abrupt withdrawal of aid has eroded decades of trust, leaving nations to seek alternatives. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a $1 trillion infrastructure juggernaut spanning Eurasia and Africa, now thrives in this vacuum, weaving economic dependencies that bypass American influence. Meanwhile, Russia’s Wagner Group, rebranded as the “Expeditionary Corps,” trades military support for mineral rights in West Africa, exploiting instability that U.S. aid once mitigated.

Antagonizing the Pillars of Alliance

The transatlantic alliance between Europe and America, a bedrock of postwar security for decades, an alliance of liberal democracies that stood unified against Fascism, Communism and until recently the Revanchism of Putin’s Russia, now lies fractured. Trump’s disdain for multilateralism has reignited tensions with Europe, particularly over defense spending and trade. In March 2025, the EU retaliated against U.S. steel tariffs with $28 billion in levies targeting Kentucky bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorcycles—a symbolic blow to industries in Republican strongholds. “The Western Alliance is fragmenting,” warned a European diplomat, as Brussels pivots toward strategic autonomy and deeper ties with the Global South.

Elsewhere, Trump’s imperial nostalgia has strained relations with neighbors. His threats to annex Canada (“the 51st state”), seize the Panama Canal, and purchase Greenland—a fantasy rooted in 19th-century expansionism—have sparked nationalist backlashes. Panama’s protesters now wave signs declaring “Sovereign Panama, Not for Sale,” while Canada’s boycott movements target U.S. goods. These theatrics mask a darker reality: the Pentagon has drafted plans to militarize the Panama Canal, risking a crisis in a region long considered America’s backyard.

 The Ukraine Gambit and the Surrender of Leverage

In Eastern Europe, Trump’s “very good chance” of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire—a 30-day truce brokered by envoy Steve Witkoff—has alarmed NATO allies. While framed as peacemaking, the proposal carries Putin’s fingerprints: demands for territorial concessions, ambiguity over Ukraine’s NATO membership, and fears that a pause would let Russia regroup. By prioritizing a deal over Kyiv’s sovereignty, Trump has undermined Europe’s security framework, signaling that American commitments are negotiable. This shift echoes a broader disdain for transnationalism. Where postwar U.S. presidents championed institutions like the UN and WTO, Trump dismisses them as constraints on American sovereignty. His tariffs on allies and adversaries alike—25% on EU steel, retaliatory taxes on Canadian lumber—have ignited global trade wars, destabilizing markets and inviting a coordinated pushback. “The Trumpian world is predicated on unrestrained power and self-interest,” observed a European think tank, “devoid of moral or humanitarian concern”.

The Rise of the Revisionists

As America retreats, rivals advance. China’s BRI, once dismissed as a debt-trap mirage, has matured into a geoeconomic colossus. By financing ports, railways, and energy grids from Indonesia to Italy, Beijing has tied emerging economies to its orbit, challenging the dollar’s primacy and sidelining U.S.-led development banks. “Belt and Road unlocks Eurasia,” noted a 2019 analysis, “and weakens the foundations of American hegemony”.

Russia, meanwhile, has weaponized mercenaries and misinformation. The Wagner Group, now under Kremlin control, offers African regimes a “survival package”: security support in exchange for minerals and political loyalty. Across Africa, from Mali to Burkina Faso, Wagner’s successors suppress jihadists—and dissent—while securing uranium and gold for Moscow. This “shadow empire” thrives where USAID once stood, exploiting the vacuum left by America’s withdrawal.

Twilight of an Era

The unipolar moment is over. The Marshall Plan’s vision—that the United States must play a crucial role in ensuring the shared prosperity that goes hand in hand with peace—has been supplanted by zero-sum nationalism. Trump’s transactional mentality, exemplified by the gutting of USAID and the alienation of our allies around the world, has not made America stronger. It has left the world fractured, resentful, and vulnerable to authoritarian opportunism. 

Pax Americana was never perfect. Whilst it had ostensibly altruistic motives, it was built on hypocrisy, interventionism, and economic self-interest. Yet its collapse risks something worse: a multipolar free-for-all where might makes right, democracies falter, and the postwar rules-based order becomes a relic. As Washington abdicates, the world is learning to live without its leadership—and the sunset of American dominance heralds an era of uncertainty.