Part I: Viktor Orbán in the Overall Context of Right-Wing Populism 

“The Best Migrant is the Migrant that Does Not Come”

—Viktor Orbán

Why has the United States elected its first true populist leader since Andrew Jackson? Well, this could be attributed to the widespread economic hardship under the Biden administration, a feeling of bourgeoisie and proletariat division, or President-elect Donald Trump’s tenacious and independent personality whirring up the populace. Of course, these are all factors, but there is one clear issue that has allowed Trump’s populist platform to succeed.

At a campaign rally in New Hampshire in December 2023, President Donald Trump declared that immigrants “are poisoning the blood of our country.” The vilification of immigrants is an age-old adage of populist leaders’ platforms and, coincidentally, was also a cornerstone of the Trump campaign. This aspect, coupled with his rhetoric of internal division, and the iconic “Make America Great Again” slogan, all point to him being the quintessential populist.

Populism burrows deep into a society when a strong and charismatic leader hyperbolizes societal problems, exploiting general displeasure among the populace. This leader then typically runs on a platform of “us” versus “them,” and in Trump’s case, he and his supporters are fighting against the Democratic party, but more specifically, immigrants.

The United States isn’t alone in electing a right-wing populist leader. In fact, right-wing populism has been on the rise around the world recently, making its way into formerly strong democratic strongholds such as Sweden and Germany. In Sweden’s 2022 general election, for example, the anti-immigrant party, the Sweden Democrats, won 72 seats in the Riksdag (the Swedish parliament), their best showing in history. This success can be attributed to their ability to capitalize on the Swedish concept of “folkhemmet” (people’s home), or the notion that society should provide a place of safety and prosperity specifically for Swedish citizens. They claimed that this concept had been jeopardized by the influx of Muslim immigrants coming to Sweden. 

So why is finding a scapegoat for all of society’s problems so successful? Well, political consultant George Birnbaum, who worked on Nixon’s 1972 campaign, stated that politicians “should try to polarize the issue that cuts best in your direction… when the opponent seizes the polarization initiative then you’re in trouble.” 

Birnbaum served as a political consultant to Benyamin Netanyahu in the 1996 Israeli general election. Together, the duo was able to capitalize on tensions between the Israeli and Palestinian people and the perceived failures of the incumbent Labor Party in providing too many concessions to the Palestinians during negotiation rounds. Netanyahu, therefore, ran on a strong anti-Palestinian platform that prioritized the Jewish people and their prosperity. This tactic proved successful, as Netanyahu won in an electoral upset and has since been able to consolidate power to an unprecedented extent.

Later in his career, Birnbaum became the political consultant of Hungarian prime minister candidate Viktor Orbán leading up to the 2010 election. Although Orbán was the prime minister of Hungary from 1998 to 2002, he lost both the 2002 and 2006 general elections, unable to find an inroad back into the executive office. Birnbaum helped him find an answer through once again polarizing the public and creating a common enemy. Together, along with fellow political consultant Arthur Finkelstein, Birnbaum labeled George Soros the political target of Orbán’s campaign.

 George Soros is a wealthy Hungarian businessman and founder of the Open Society Foundations, a nonprofit organization which aims to “support the growth of inclusive and vibrant democracies” throughout the world through methods such as grant-giving and research. However, Orbán labeled Soros’s civil society groups as corrupt, claiming they “tr[ied] secretly and with foreign money to influence Hungarian politics.” Birnbaum further compared Soros to the Wizard of Oz, stating that he was “controlling politics and policy, from behind the curtain.” This instigating rhetoric resulted in both Orbán and his party, Fidesz, winning the election in a landslide.

However, the fear centered around George Soros subsided, forcing Orbán to pivot in 2015 and instead shift the blame onto a new scapegoat: Muslim immigrants. Orbán began to label them as “poisonous” and disruptive to the well-being and economic viability of everyday Hungarians. Orbán’s tactics seem to be successful as well; according to a study conducted by the Brookings Institution in 2014, 39% of surveyed Hungarians expressed xenophobic attitudes, surging to 67% in 2018. 

With a majority of foreign media hyper-focused on his immigration stance, Orbán has been given room to erode many of Hungary’s integral democratic institutions without significant repercussions. Perhaps the most prominent example of this was Orbán’s reformation of the Hungarian constitution in 2011, which pushed the central European state to become an electoral autocracy. This was achieved by drastically reducing the number of parliamentary seats, while redrawing legislative districts to guarantee the coalition between Fidesz, and their allies, the Jobbik party, could consolidate unchecked power. Moreover, the Hungarian judiciary has been uprooted and placed under the direct control of the executive, with Fidesz judges occupying the positions. Moreover, Orbán has refused to promote LGBTQ rights within Hungary, citing them as a threat to the country’s Christian values and disruptive to nuclear family structures.

Despite significant democratic backsliding, Orbán’s populist framing against immigrants has helped increase support for Fidesz from 24% in 2015 to 38% in 2019. 

This being said, the fertile ground for which hate speech and xenophobia were able to grow can be attributed to more than just Orbán’s tactics. In fact, since the early 2000s and even before Orbán’s second rise to power, Hungarian politics were marred by the far right-wing Jobbik party. Although never controlling the executive, the Jobbiks disseminated hate speech and exploited anti-Roma sentiment to advance their own political agenda. This thereby legitimized the rapid radicalization of public discourse against foreign people. Their tactics have now laid the foundation for the Hungarian people’s justification of xenophobic attitudes towards Muslim immigrants. 

Part II: Hungary and America, One and the Same 

“Modern Hungary is not just a model for conservative statecraft, but the model. Americans, Brits, Spaniards, Australians—everyone—can and should learn from it.”

—Kevin Roberts, President of the Heritage Foundation 

The 2024 general U.S. Elections could not have gone any better for the Republican party, which won the presidency and secured majorities in the Senate and the House. These victories have set up the GOP with the potential to implement sweeping reforms and shape the country in its own conservative image. Trump and his advisors have had the last four years to formulate their policy plans, and there is some speculation as to what might be implemented once he is inaugurated. 

At a press conference in January 2024, Trump announced “There is a great man, a great leader in Europe — Viktor Orbán. … He is a very great leader, a very strong man.” The two world leaders frequently talk one-on-one, giving each other high praise. The Hungarian leader was also one of only a handful of European heads of state who endorsed Trump during his recent campaign. Moreover, from July 1 to December 31, 2024, Hungary held the presidency of the Council of the European Union, promoting the motto of “Make Europe Great Again,” a reference to Trump’s iconic slogan. 

Due to the fact they possess similar political stances and values, it is unsurprising that Trump and Orbán admire each other’s populist administrations. According to Jeremy Shapiro, U.S. Programme Research Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, “Republicans will likely adapt many of Orbán’s techniques to the US context to end what they view as liberal control of the “administrative state” and civil society.”

Orbán has been able to transform Hungary into an “illiberal democracy” after only fourteen years, consolidating power within his party, resulting in many touting him as the most successful populist in the world. By demonstrating how to effectively build a conservative utopia while maintaining sufficient support to stay in power, he has essentially created a perfect blueprint for Trump to follow. Naturally, Hungary and the United States are different countries with differing interests, worldviews, and capabilities; however, Orbán’s plan is still highly applicable to the US. Much of this reasoning rests on similar outlooks on immigration and other views rooted in conservatism. 

Many Hungarians feared that Muslim immigrants coming into the country were dangerous, thereby compromising collective societal safety. Playing off of these same fears, in 2017, Trump announced the Muslim Ban, which barred citizens and refugees from seven predominantly Muslim countries from entering the United States, labeling them “radical Islamic terrorists.” Despite this claim, many of those attempting to emigrate from these countries were refugees from areas of conflict such as Syria and Yemen and posed no threat to the American public. Unfortunately, memories of 9/11 remain imprinted in many Americans’ minds, making Muslim immigrants an easy scapegoat. 

However, the 2024 Trump campaign shifted from Muslim-centered anti-immigrant rhetoric to anti-Latin American immigrant rhetoric. He has used scare tactics and rhetoric, hyperbolizing the number of criminal immigrants, citing numbers at 20 million, well over official estimates. By facilitating a modern-day witch hunt of illegal immigrants, he has been able to sow increased division within our country, turning neighbors against one another—a tactic Orbán is all too familiar with. 

The anti-immigrant sentiment in both countries can be boiled down to economic fears, such as the age-old adage that immigrants steal domestic jobs. However, in the case of the United States, this claim is inaccurate. Numerous studies show that a majority of immigrants don’t steal jobs from American workers. Instead, they create their own job opportunities, by working less desirable jobs that are integral to the country’s economy, such as those in the agricultural and food processing industries. Research by Giovani Peri, Chair of the Department of Economics at the University of California, Davis, found that the presence of new immigrant labor often improves employment opportunities and conditions for native-born workers, since they have differing, often more technical skill sets. This is evidenced by the increase in wages among native-born African American workers in Miami after a large surge of Cubans immigrated into the city in the 1980s.

Fears of immigrants stealing jobs can also be attributed to the recent spread of xenophobic propaganda. The Republican party has demonstrated the effectiveness of spreading information through modern methods, such as social media and talk shows, while the Democrats have been slow to learn that traditional media isn’t as effective as it once was. The more fictitious, reactionary news outlets such as Fox and the Daily Wire have helped Trump to disseminate his propaganda. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s superimposed presence on X (formerly Twitter) since buying the platform back in 2022, coupled with the rise of conservative talk show hosts such as Ben Shapiro and Joe Rogan, has reached a wide audience. Understanding social media and selling the Republican brand has given the GOP an edge among many demographic cohorts, specifically young male voters. 

While this media dominance evident in the last election cycle isn’t nearly as absolute as Orbán’s, I’m sure Trump will be taking note of the Hungarian leader’s policies. According to Freedom House, Hungary is one of the lowest-ranked countries in Europe in terms of press freedom. Moreover, “Reports Without Borders” describes the Orbán regime as a “predator of press freedom,” as the Hungarian Prime Minister has bought up over 80% of the country’s media and completely shut down opposing sources, such as the weekly magazine 168 Ora. 

Orbán has also been criticized for regression in gender equality, as evidenced by the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights Dunja Mijatovic’s report after a visit in 2019. Mijatovic accused the administration of “backsliding in gender equality and women’s rights,” with political representation also being remarkably low. Additionally, the report stated that “violence against women remains a serious problem in Hungary,” and there are issues pertaining to the lack of reporting incidents. While this report is over five years old, giving Orbán sufficient time to implement change, his administration still has not made any true strides toward narrowing this gender gap. 

Viktor Orbán has, for a long time, attempted to promote himself as a major proponent of traditional family values. Like many Central and Eastern European countries, Hungary has been suffering from a declining birth rate, which the government blamed in part on increased rates of women in higher education. The Orbán administration has attempted to tackle the problem of population decline by issuing significant tax breaks to couples who give birth to children. These tax breaks range from 10,000 Forints a month for one child to complete tax exemptions for women with four or more children. However, this incentivization for women to have more children carries the risk of reinforcing harmful gender stereotypes and relegating Hungarian women to the status of homemakers. 

Moreover, Hungary recently passed legislation in September 2022 making it much more difficult for women to access legal and safe abortions. Now the mother is required to listen to the heartbeat of the fetus via an ultrasound before being able to abort the fetus in an obvious attempt to guilt trip the mother. This legislation reversed almost 70 years of accessible and reasonable abortion policies, and it may be no surprise that it passed only a few months after Roe v. Wade was overturned in the United States. The United States is meant to uphold human rights, and other countries look to us to determine whether or not legislation should be passed. When we deny women accessibility to abortions, we encourage autocratic leaders like Viktor Orbán to follow suit.

Moreover, many members of the Republican party have vilified the LGBTQ community due to bigoted beliefs stemming from their religious values. With Trump’s election, and Republicans dominating the legislative and judicial branches, many fear backsliding in terms of LGBTQ rights. Perhaps Trump will look at how his Hungarian counterpart has been able to suppress the LGBTQ community while minimizing foreign intervention. While discrimination based on sexual orientation is banned in Hungary, same-sex marriage, as well as gender realignment is illegal. Many conservative politicians, like Texas Senator Ted Cruz, latched onto this anti-transgender rhetoric, making it central to their own campaigns to mobilize voters. 

The Orbán administration also passed a so-called “Propaganda Law” in 2021, which limits the discussion and portrayal of LGBTQ persons in schools and the media. This policy has initiated a widespread book ban among the youth, specifically in Hungarian schools. It is perhaps reminiscent of the spread of classroom censorship and book bans in predominantly conservative states. The most notorious of these incidents was the passage of the “Don’t Say Gay” bill in Florida, which prohibited discussions about LGBTQ persons or sexual identity within classrooms. With the widespread support for these classroom bans, perhaps Trump will follow in Orbán’s footsteps and implement a nationwide ban.

Lastly, in terms of foreign policy, both leaders have demonstrated their lax attitude toward Vladimir Putin’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine. Orbán held out in approving aid to Ukraine, vetoing financial packages repeatedly, claiming that Russia doesn’t represent a true security threat to Europe. Any aid sent, in the mind of the Hungarian PM, is futile and contrary to the fundamentals of conservatism in avoiding superfluous foreign entanglement. 

Similarly, Trump doesn’t see much value in NATO being so entangled in the Russo-Ukrainian War and is looking to put a quick end to the conflict upon taking office. Observers are worried that any hasty attempt by Trump to do so would decrease the bargaining power of Ukraine and the West, thereby providing Russia with considerable concessions. 

As I have addressed in this article, populism is on the rise in an international system that is increasingly spreading on the global stage. This can be attributed to a variety of causes, such as the threat of immigrants, economic downturn, or gender/ minority issues. Those who value the preservation of democratic institutions should keep a watchful eye on these two countries as their own domestic politics unfold. Both Orbán and Trump’s political successes give legitimacy to their right-wing populist platforms and provide frameworks for democratic backsliding, not just among each other, but among the international community as a whole.