In today’s geopolitical landscape of East Asia, Taiwan has consistently been a crucial ally of the United States. Recently, there has been growing international support for Taiwan’s legitimate, recognized status on the global stage. The concept that “Taiwan is not part of China” is becoming increasingly recognized worldwide. However, few may realize that Taiwan’s official name remains the “Republic of China” (ROC) and its constitution continues to claim sovereignty over mainland China. This makes the assertion that “Taiwan is not part of China” somewhat confusing. More notably, most Taiwanese people show little interest in changing this system. What exactly is going on here? This article will explain in simple terms the complex relationship between Taiwan and mainland China and the potential for conflict it harbors. 

Although the Chinese government has long claimed that Taiwan “has been an inseparable part of China since ancient times,” Taiwan has never been ruled by the current Chinese government — the People’s Republic of China (PRC).  In 1949, when the Chinese Communist Party defeated the Kuomintang and established the PRC, Taiwan had only been under ROC rule for a brief four years. Before that, it had endured 51 years of Japanese colonial rule. 

For most Taiwanese, it wasn’t until 1943 that they became aware of China’s modern sovereign claim over the island. That year, China, the United States, and the United Kingdom jointly issued the Cairo Declaration demanding Japan “return” Taiwan and the Penghu Islands to China. 

After World War II ended in 1945, the Kuomintang (KMT) took control of Taiwan from the Japanese empire on behalf of the ROC. However, the KMT’s misrule sparked public discontent, which the government responded to with large-scale suppression and massacre known as the “228 Incident” of 1947. This situation left the Taiwanese people, newly liberated from Japanese imperial rule, disillusioned with China giving rise to the idea of “Taiwan Independence.” Notably, despite the initial resistance, in the decades following the Chinese Communist Party’s defeat of the KMT and their subsequent retreat to Taiwan, many local Taiwanese elites chose to cooperate with the KMT under an anti-communist ideology. Most local elites abandoned armed resistance and instead strove to demand more power within the electoral system. Consequently, they did not entirely oppose the governing system brought by the KMT, allowing the ROC system to take root in Taiwan. 

In Taiwan, there are four main ethnic groups: Hoklo, Hakka, indigenous peoples, and Mainlanders who migrated with the KMT. Among these, only the indigenous peoples, who are Austronesian, have lived in Taiwan for thousands of years. The Hoklo, Hakka, and Mainlanders are all Han Chinese. The arrival of these Han groups in Taiwan can be characterized as a process of settler colonialism, each wave differing only in their time of arrival. Throughout this historical process, indigenous cultures were devalued as backward and primitive while the Han people gradually dominated the island through military and economic advantages, eventually becoming the dominant group. This process is similar to European settlers’ occupation of the Americas. In Taiwan, the local Han elites’ compromise and cooperation with the ROC system indirectly led to the continued political, cultural, and economic marginalization of indigenous peoples. 

During the nearly 80 years of ROC rule in Taiwan, the island has undergone political democratization with people now able to directly elect legislators and the President. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which initially advocated for “Taiwan Independence,” has gradually expanded its political influence nationwide. However, the DPP found that the slogan of “Taiwan Independence” failed to gain majority support among the Taiwanese people. Eventually, in 1999, the DPP publicly stated that ROC had in fact already become a sovereign, independent democratic country. Since then, even when the DPP has gained power, it has often avoided putting “promoting Taiwan independence” on the official political agenda, a stance that continues to this day. As a result, the ROC as Taiwan’s political system remains difficult to challenge. 

This unique political atmosphere has shaped an ambiguous political stance  among the Taiwanese public: “I don’t want unification with China, nor do I want Taiwan independence; I just want to maintain the status quo.” Polls conducted by National Chengchi University since 1992 have consistently demonstrated this phenomenon. When asked about the relationship between Taiwan and mainland China, the predominant public opinion has long been to decide at a later date or maintain the status quo indefinitely. Since 1992, these two options combined have consistently garnered 50-60% support. Notably, while very few people respond with “independence as soon as possible,” the number of those answering “maintain status quo, move toward independence” has been increasing in recent years, surpassing “maintain status quo, move toward unification” since 2003. The percentage choosing “maintain status quo, move toward independence” reached a peak of 25.8% in 2020. However, it has shown a declining trend since then. 

A BBC report suggested that the increased Taiwanese support for “maintain status quo” is a clear trend, attributing it to the influence of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The report argued that Russia’s aggression in the war has made Taiwanese people more concerned that advocating for independence could lead to the same outcome for them. 

Indeed, the threat of war is the main factor preventing Taiwan from making independence a key political agenda item. In public statements, the PRC has never renounced the possibility of using force to unify Taiwan. The PRC has also deployed thousands of missiles aimed at Taiwan along its southeastern coast, and continues to increase this number. 

Therefore, if someone questions why Taiwanese people always seem to lack a clear will for independence and prefer to maintain the ROC system inherited from China, we must clearly understand that this is due to the military threat from China rather than representing the true feelings of the Taiwanese people. 

It’s worth noting that China’s clear intention to use military force to prevent  Taiwan’s independence often provokes discontent among the Taiwanese public. This has led to a continuous increase in the possibility of war in the Taiwan Strait.  

As war would be against U.S. interests, the U.S. government often actively requests the Taiwanese government to “maintain the status quo” as much as possible. From this perspective, the Taiwanese people’s inclination to “maintain the status quo” is actually the result of a three-way struggle between Taiwan, China, and the United States. This also means that the concept of “Taiwan is not part of China” remains more of an ideal than an attainable reality.