The U.S. is facing a crisis that threatens the very foundations of our democracy. The normalization of political violence, once unthinkable in our national discourse, has become an increasingly troubling reality. With the election around the corner and two public assassination attempts against former President and current candidate Donald Trump, the climate of U.S. politics seems to be taking a turn for the worse. 

According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, political violence in the United States has been on the rise since 2016, with a significant spike in 2020. This trend is not limited to fringe groups: a disturbing one in five Americans now believe that political violence is at least sometimes justified. It is not simply polarization that causes political violence, but rather the underlying emotions concerning our political state and elections. Affective polarization in the United States has been rising for decades, while political violence only increased sharply in 2016.

The data seems to show a troubling upward trend in terms of political violence. Threats against Congress have increased tenfold in the past five years. In the previous election, within the eleven weeks between the election and Inauguration Day, armed protests grew by 47%,  and organized paramilitary groups grew by 96%. By February 2021, “One in five Republicans (20%) and 13% of Democrats claimed that political violence was justified ‘these days’.” 

A primary factor contributing to such a drastic shift could be the change in political rhetoric that tacitly approves of violence. A study by Dr. Rachel Kleinfeld in her testimony to the January 6th Committee highlighted how extremist groups have been emboldened by this kind of rhetoric. As politicians try to solidify their supporter base, violence around election time ramps up due to the language used by these public figures attempting to create distinctions between other racial, religious, or ethnic groups. This language and dissemination of certain narratives which are supposedly intended to benefit a campaign have also incited political unrest. For example, in the 2020 elections, the perception that the election was “stolen” was widespread,  instigating anger among many Americans. A University of Chicago survey in 2021 found that of the roughly one tenth of those who think force is justified to restore Trump, 90% also see Biden as illegitimate. In this upcoming election, we see no shortage of similar language, sparking serious debate on whether recent rhetoric has instigated the assassination attempts on Donald Trump. 

Another important consideration, one that is perhaps even more alarming, is the erosion of trust in American institutions over time. Disinformation is becoming incredibly common because of technology and social media and it is being spread faster than ever. This inaccurate information can bring about certain beliefs, creating a variety of narratives that leave people emotionally charged or feeling persecuted. A study by James Piazza found this to be the case, as he used data from 150+ countries to discover that the dispersal of disinformation on social media has close ties to domestic terrorism. Many of these theories, rumors, or just false stories can confuse their audience and leave people feeling deceived by our institutions, driving political violence. A prime example was Donald Trump’s rally shooting, as rumors of the incident being staged in an attempt to appeal to the public’s sympathy reverberated in the aftermath. 

The implications of escalating political violence are profound and far-reaching. A Johns Hopkins survey of more than 100 global scholars helps identify to what extent political violence has impacted or will impact American democracy. These experts found elevated signs of concern in five areas: violence directed at the electoral process, right-wing/white nationalist violence, increased polarization, violence against marginalized communities, and elites/public officials encouraging, condoning, or inciting violence. The fear of violence can have a dampening effect on civic engagement. Citizens may think twice before attending public events, expressing their views openly, or even engaging in basic political activities. This suppression of civic participation further weakens our democratic process.

The normalization of political violence represents a critical juncture for American democracy. How we respond to this challenge will shape our political landscape for generations to come. Integrating better fact-checking and oversight on misinformation can be a complicated process, but it could help resolve some of the issues we see today. However, it is our responsibility as citizens to practice good judgment and to research the information we are presented with. Our public figures seem to have lost sight of what really matters. Democracy is not about winning an election at any cost, but representing and serving the country. Divisive and careless language clearly has had resounding effects that we are facing today—because with great power comes great responsibility.