Foreign Affairs

¡Viva España!

After months of political deadlock, Spain finally has a Prime Minister. Pedro Sánchez of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) was able to secure re-investiture from a parliament where no other party had a clear majority. However, how the PSOE has managed to maintain its power is questionable, if not highly controversial, among Spaniards. However, before we examine this controversy, we must investigate the gridlock that led to it.

In late July 2023, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election, hoping to secure another term in power. This decision bewildered many political pundits in Spain, as Sánchez’s Socialists had suffered massive defeats in local elections against the People’s Party (PP) less than two months before. The polls also reflected an unfavorable political climate, with the People’s Party leading the Socialists by 7 points. However, Sánchez saw an opportunity to disorient the opposition with a snap election, as he saw this period as ample time to call an election because none of the major parties would expect it less than two months after significant losses for his party.

Once the King dissolved Parliament, as per Sánchez’s wishes, Sánchez strategically maneuvered to label his opponent Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s People’s Party as beholden to the will of Vox, a far-right party. The multiparty system of Spanish politics forces the larger parties to work with smaller parties on their side of the political spectrum in order to gain a majority, making Vox and the Peoples Party natural partners. Although polls still indicated that the People’s Party was on the path to forming a government with the help of Vox, as the results came in on election night, they stated the opposite.

Although Fejióo won a plurality of seats in the Parliament — 137, to be exact — even with the support of Vox he would not be able to surmount the threshold needed to gain investiture from the Spanish Parliament. Even as Sánchez’s gambit denied the People’s Party the outright majority needed to form a government, his Socialists also lacked the 176 votes needed to confirm the prime minister, even with the support of all the other center-left to left-wing parties. As parties in Parliament took their camps, the PP, Vox, and other center-right parties declared their support for Feijóo, while the PSOE, Sumar, and center-left supported Sánchez. However, the Catalonian independence movement parties — Junts and the ERC — remained the uncomical kingmakers. The indecisive results led both leaders to declare their own victories and sparked months of negotiations, eventually leading to Sánchez’s appointment on the 17th of November.

In the aftermath of the results, Spain’s King Felipe allowed Fejióo to be the first to try and form a government. Although Fejióo came close to forming a government with 171 votes in favor of his appointment, the remaining opposition coalesced to deny him the power to form a government twice. It soon became clear to all observers that the only way to end the deadlock was to call another election or rely on the Catalan separatists for support.

Catalonian Independence leader Carles Puigdemont clearly stated that the Catalonians would only support the candidate who promised to grant amnesty to himself and other independence leaders living in exile after they tried to conduct an illegal referendum for Catalonian independence. Sánchez and Feijóo, opponents of Catalonian independence, initially opposed the idea of amnesty. However, as the gridlock continued, Sánchez feared that it would lead to another election that he might not be able to win.

In the end, Sánchez made a deal with Catalonian independence leaders, granting amnesty in exchange for votes. Although Sánchez may have saved his government for now, he has acted without the political foresight that characterized most of his career. The Sánchez government may have the support of the Catalonian Independence movement today, but their votes are still conditional. Junts and their fellow independence parties could withdraw their backing at will and work with the opposition to file a successful motion of no confidence. This deal gave Sánchez a tenuous government beholden to separatists but acted as a double-edged sword, hurting his credibility with the public.

The tens of thousands of protestors that came out to demonstrate against the amnesty deal demonstrate the apparent feeling of dislike towards Catalonian separatism that most Spaniards hold. This deal has cost Sánchez credibility as he has negotiated to give people, whom many Spaniards view as criminals, amnesty for political gain. Although Sánchez may hold the government for now and profess his deep love for Spain through his chants of “…¡Viva España!…,” it is unlikely that Spaniards will believe or support him and his Socialists for elections to come.

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